Most recent :
|
CAN WE PLEASE HAVE SOME OF OUR MONEY BACK?
|
|
|
|
Brussels' propaganda is below the belt
|
|
|
|
Landmark Challange to National UK ban on smoking now imminent
|
|
|
Search Speeches and Articles
| |
| News and Articles |
|
|
YouGov poll – Analysis : By Jonathan Arnott (Master of Mathematics)
|
It’s often said that you can prove anything with statistics. UKIP are given a 5% share of the vote by the latest YouGov opinion poll but a careful analysis of the figures shows that the three largest parties should be more worried than the poll shows:
Firstly, the question gave voters the option of Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat or ‘other’. Voters were not reminded of the names of the ‘other’ parties unless they had already chosen ‘other’. This of course biases the results against minor parties. True UKIP support may therefore be slightly higher than what the poll suggests.
Secondly, UKIP support is highest (7%) in the age group (55+) most likely to turn out and vote on polling day.
Thirdly, UKIP are in direct competition with the Greens and the BNP for protest votes – UKIP did far better in 2001 where they were not fighting a Green or BNP candidate. This helps to explain why UKIP find progress much more difficult in Scotland and Wales, where an established protest vote (SNP and Plaid Cymru respectively) already exists. Since the Greens and BNP will not stand everywhere, UKIP should pick up some of their votes (2% and 2% of the poll respectively) where they do not stand.
Fourthly, UKIP support is concentrated in certain areas. The nationwide figure of 5% covers poll ratings of 1% in Scotland and 7% in the South. Within the Southern ‘region’ as described by YouGov, there is huge variation in support for UKIP. In 2001, when UKIP barely registered in the opinion polls, the party still took 7.8% of the vote in the Bexhill and Battle constituency. This concentration of votes implies that UKIP will make a significant impact on certain seats in the coming general election, and it certainly bodes well for the chance of returning the first UKIP MPs.
Finally, the UKIP general election campaign has more potential for winning votes than the campaigns of the other parties. The policies of any other party of any note (Labour, Conservative, Lib Dem, BNP, Green, SNP, Plaid Cymru) are already known to the voters. Many have already closed their minds to the arguments of these parties, often with good cause. UKIP are something of an unknown quantity to the electorate. With the right ‘sales pitch’, a UKIP campaign has much more potential in terms of impact. The other parties need only look at UKIP’s high-profile European elections campaign back in June to understand this.
For the sake of completeness, just one note of caution is advisable – YouGov polls often credit UKIP with higher support than those of other polling organisations.
At the last general election in 2001 UKIP took 1.48% of the vote. If a general election were held today, on the basis of these figures we might expect a result of around 7% - and that’s before the campaign even gets started! 7% is probably not yet quite enough to get MPs elected – it’s the campaign that will do that for us.
In conclusion, although the poll only shows UKIP as having 5% support nationwide, the true level of UKIP support may be much higher under election conditions. With the potential for UKIP to progress further as the general election approaches, the other parties would do well to sit up and take notice. The first UKIP MPs could be entering the House of Commons in just a few months’ time.
This Analysis relates to a YouGov Opinion Poll published 17th December 2004. |
| Back to content list
To print this story click here. The story will open in a pop up window, Click on File and then click print, you can then close the pop up window.
|
|
|
|
