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The French say Non !
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The French ‘Non’ in the referendum on the EU Constitution is certainly grounds for celebration. We should be quite clear about just how significant this victory actually is.
In January of this year, the Eurobarometer measure of French public opinion found 48% in favour of the draft EU Constitution, compared to just 17% against. Between September and December 2004, French opinion polls found that, of those intending to vote, ‘Yes’ was between 57% and 64%, whilst ‘No’ was between 36% and 43%.
Overall, before the arguments were made, the ‘Yes’ camp had a massive lead of up to 30% in the polls.
The ‘Yes’ campaign was supported by both major French political parties, was the subject of live television addresses by the President pleading for a Yes vote, was supported in the French press and had funding that the Constitution’s opponents could only dream of. Yet in the final vote, the French voted No by a considerable margin.
A similar phenomenon was seen in this country over regional assemblies. Before the debate had started, an opinion poll found widespread support for the assemblies. When a list of the main arguments in favour and against were presented, support dropped sharply. This poll should have sent shockwaves through the Yes camp, indicating that support for regional assemblies was fragile. Even so, politicians appeared surprised that it was rejected with an incredible 77.9% voting No, on a respectable turnout.
The message here is clear. Support for a Constitution, regional assemblies, or any other proposal is likely to be at its highest before the full details are made clear in debate. Before the debate starts, support is for the principle of the document. A ‘Constitution’ doesn’t feel threatening to many people – until they read some of the articles!
Opinion polls show a clear majority in favour of ID cards. Strangely, when it is pointed out that the public would have to pay £93 each for one, support drops.
There will never be a ‘perfect’ Constitution, a perfect scheme for ID cards or a perfect proposal for regional assemblies. Some people will always support these schemes in principle, but vote against in a referendum once they know the details.
In this context, the problem for the European Union is that they can never win a referendum on further European integration in this country. This is best seen by comparing the UK to France.
1. The press here will be more balanced than in France, so the media won’t give the Yes campaign the same advantages. The Daily Mail, Sun, Express and Telegraph will oppose any further integration, whilst the Guardian, Mirror and Independent will support it.
2. The French Yes campaign was far better funded than the No campaign. That will not be the case in the UK.
3. Opposition to further EU integration is higher in the UK than support for it. Even before the publicity of the French referendum, opinion polls showed the No camp in the UK enjoying a lead of well over 20% on the question of whether we should adopt the EU Constitution.
If there is one lesson to be learned from France, it is that the UK government will never win any referendum on further EU integration. The French vote is a cause for celebration, certainly – but I would have enjoyed going to a polling station and voting ‘No’ to the European Constitution. It has been 30 years since people were duped into voting for what they thought was a trade organisation. It seems unlikely that they will get their chance to have another say, and that is the great shame of the French result. |
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